A new forecast says that tourism will increase by about 2% in Michigan this year, which is better than shrinking but hardly enough to offset the sags elsewhere in the state economy. And the real numbers will be subject to such variables as the weather and gasoline prices, since Michigan tourism is largely motor vehicle-based.
Another factor will be the strength of the U.S. dollar relative to Canada. This could be a busy summer at the state's three international border crossings, but which way will the traffic be flowing?
The potential impact, up or down, from these wild cards is an indication that Michigan still has not seized enough control of its own destiny as a destination. Things that are beyond Michigan's ability to influence ought not figure so prominently in whether the state has a good year. With manufacturing in decline and the auto industry in turmoil, every year has to be a solid growth year for tourism.
The forecast from the Michigan State University Tourism Center, unveiled last week at a conference in Mt. Pleasant, has the number of travelers in Michigan up by 1-2% while spending grows 4-5%. In 2005, the number of travelers in Michigan actually fell by 2% but spending rose about 4%.
State spending to market Michigan, however, will remain flat, as it has for the past few years, at about $5.7 million. The state also expects to pour about $15 million from its new Jobs Fund into tourism promotion over the next 2-5 years. But even with that, Michigan would spend only about a third of what Illinois spends on tourism and barely more than Wisconsin -- and neither has as much to offer.
It's easy to say the state just doesn't have the money and hope for good weather and cheap gas. But that evades the debate about whether Michigan is making travel and tourism a high enough priority and investing enough not just in concerted marketing but in shoring up its attractions.
Given the potential return on investment, given the possibility of tourism actually tiding over the state through the wrenching economic transition now under way, the answer is no. There's more to do and not much time to get it done.
